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June 2024 BuyTrigger Update: Key Stock Insights and Opportunities
June 2024 BuyTrigger Update: Key Stock Insights and Opportunities
Discover the latest investment opportunities and insights in our June 2024 BuyTrigger update. We analyze key stocks including Micron, Nike, Salesforce, Snowflake, Square, and Shopify, providing detailed evaluations, growth forecasts, and technical analysis to help guide your investment strategy.
As we move through 2024, several key stocks have presented unique opportunities and notable updates. In this June BuyTrigger update, we dive into the latest analysis and forecasts for Micron, Nike, Salesforce, Snowflake, Square, and Shopify. This comprehensive overview provides insights into the current market trends, technical analysis, and strategic investment opportunities for these prominent companies.
Micron - back to 26% Revenue growth?
Previously, when the BuyTrigger was initiated, Micron was priced in the $50-60 range. Pricing it at $100 with limited data was ambitious. However, everything changed when the forecast for 2024 and 2025 showed that inventory was sold out. Assuming there are no delays in inventories and Micron can charge premium prices to its customers in the AI datacenter space, a revenue increase from $15 billion in 2023 to $45 billion in 2027 is expected.
I have upgraded the BuyTrigger from $124 to $172 and the valuation from $100 to $236. This change is driven by the new forecast growth, which has increased from 10% to 26%.
How did we miss such a drastic change? At the end of 2023, we knew that High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) chips would sell like hotcakes. However, it was challenging for us analysts to forecast this without AI data from before 2023. This shift is comparable to Tesla transitioning from selling cars to selling Robotaxis as a completely new business model.
We need to be cautious as forecasts can change or may not be achieved. I recommend staying calmly ambitious and maintaining a long-term perspective until 2027. The good news is that the memory semiconductor cycle, which typically lasts five years, could be extended to seven years.
Micron is officially upgraded to a High Growth Category on BuyTrigger from Mature Growth.
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Nike going Under Armour mode?
Nike's earnings for Q2 2024 missed expectations, and the forecast growth is in decline as well. Does this change my BuyTrigger and outlook for the company? Allow me to explain!
Firstly, I was already very pessimistic with my BuyTrigger and valuation. I had already accounted for the slowing growth. So in that sense, my assessment of the company proved the valuation and technical analysis right. It was overvalued and was not recommended to buy!
I am not updating the valuation because it was already priced in previously. However, the technical analysis has pushed it below its previous low, hence reaching the end of the Fibonacci level.
This would have triggered a buy for Nike at $80-81.
Wall Street analysts are brutal. They are like vultures lurking around looking for opportunistic short plays. Despite my call on the baseline bottom at $80 fair value BuyTrigger, there will be opportunities to go as low as $75.
I think Nike is a fair value buy if you are looking for a more stable base play in your diversification strategy.
Nike is officially Buy-Triggered!
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I do this all for free and appreciate if you buy me a cup of KO-FI for all this hard work. LINK HERE… ☕
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Salesforce - did you buy the last dip when I shouted?
I want to clarify that my approach is based on systematic, unemotional buy trigger principles.
The last dip in Salesforce during Q2 earnings presented a buying opportunity, and now the stock is starting to rise beyond $250 again.
Software companies are typically valued 18-24 months ahead of time due to stock-based compensation to employees and their high profit margins without the need for significant capex spending.
EOY 2023 = $230
EOY 2024 = $361
EOY 2025 = $435
As it stands, Salesforce looks severely undervalued. However, please remember that the AI evolution for software companies like Salesforce is still in the trial phase regarding how effectively AI applications can increase revenue.
I have updated the valuation to $361 to align with 2024 expectations. However the BuyTrigger is still sitting at $230 for EOY 2023.
Salesforce is a great addition under $280.
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Snowflow still melting but slowing down.
Snowflake appears overvalued to me. Regardless of the numbers or future forecasts, I am sticking to a $91 valuation. The only reason it appears here is because the technical analysis indicates a potential bounce. The last three green candle spikes suggest that institutions are buying in.
Another observation is that the MACD is negative but possibly rising to the positive side. Lastly, the 50-day moving average (MA) is being breached, causing a reversal. If it stays above the 50-day MA for the next 8 weeks, we could see the formation of a golden cross.
A swing opportunity to $160 and $180 until the next earnings report.
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Squaring it Up?
Strong Financial Performance:Â Block has demonstrated robust financial health with significant revenue growth driven by its diverse ecosystem, including Cash App and Square services.
Innovation and Expansion:Â Block's continuous innovation, particularly in blockchain and AI, positions it for substantial long-term growth. The company is expanding its market reach, creating new revenue streams.
Market Position:Â As a leader in digital payments and financial technology, Block benefits from increased adoption of cashless transactions and digital financial services.
High Profit Margins:Â Block's business model, which requires minimal capital expenditure, ensures high profit margins and sustainable growth.
Lets Welcome Square into BuyTrigger.io with a High Risk classification with 30% growth 😮
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Shopify on the Technical Swing
Price Movement: The stock has moved up from the $60 valuation zone, indicating strong support at this level. The recent upward momentum is highlighted by three consecutive green candles, suggesting institutional buying.
Moving Averages: The stock has breached the 50-day moving average, a bullish sign. If it can maintain this level for the next 8 weeks, it could form a golden cross, further supporting a bullish trend.
MACD: The MACD is in negative territory but is showing signs of rising, potentially crossing into positive territory soon. This could indicate a continuation of the current upward momentum.
Given the current positive sentiment, there is a swing opportunity for Shopify's stock to reach $80
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I do this all for free and appreciate if you buy me a cup of KO-FI for all this hard work. LINK HERE… ☕
This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this post are solely my own and are based on my personal analysis and experience. All information is provided on an as-is basis, and while I strive to ensure accuracy, I make no guarantees regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of the information provided.
Investing in stocks and financial instruments involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. This blog is intended as a personal journal to document my thoughts and strategies, and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
By reading this blog, you acknowledge that I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make based on the information provided here. Please exercise due diligence and consider your own financial situation and goals before making any investments.
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